Results
from
a
new
Baldwin
Wallace
University
Great
Lakes
Poll
offer
an
intriguing,
early
election-year
snapshot
of
public
opinion
in
four
key
Midwest
states.
The
survey
finds
President
Donald
Trump
facing
an
uphill
climb
to
win
over
a
majority
of
voters
in
Ohio,
Michigan,
Pennsylvania
and
Wisconsin
again
in
2020
-
especially
among
women.
The
first
of
four
planned
2020
surveys,
in
partnership
with
Oakland
University
and
Ohio
Northern
University,
provides
a
side-by-side
comparative
analysis
of
voter
views
in
four
states
that
all
went
for
President
Obama
in
2012
and
President
Trump
in
2016
-
three
of
four
by
very
slim
margins.
Spearheaded
by
the
Baldwin
Wallace
Community
Research
Institute
(CRI),
the
poll
questioned
self-identified
voters
on
a
variety
of
topics
including
impeachment,
Iran,
the
President,
the
2020
Democratic
primary
field
and
more.
Among
the
findings:
-
TRUMP
IN
2020
-
Respondents
who
are
'almost
certain'
to
vote
against
President
Trump
led
those
'almost
certain'
to
vote
for
Trump
by
margins
of
10-20
points,
but
about
one
in
10
say
their
vote
hinges
on
the
Democratic
Party's
nominee.
(see
Q2).
-
WIDE
GENDER
GAP
-
Women
are
more
likely
to
say
they
are
'almost
certain'
to
vote
against
Trump
(10-12
points
higher),
while
men
are
consistently
higher
in
support
for
the
President
(see
Q2).
Analysis:
"The
difference
in
women's
lack
of
support
for
Donald
Trump
will
be
critical
to
the
chances
of
a
Democratic
nominee
winning
these
states.
This
follows
the
trend
of
women
supporting
Democratic
candidates
in
the
2018
Congressional
midterms
that
resulted
in
a
Democratic
majority
being
elected
to
the
House."
-
Dr.
Tom
Sutton,
Baldwin
Wallace
University
-
DEMOCRATIC
CHALLENGERS
-
A
plurality
of
Democrats
and
Democratic-leaners
prefer
Joe
Biden
for
the
Democratic
nomination,
except
for
Wisconsin,
where
Bernie
Sanders
is
ahead
(see
Q9).
-
THE
BLOOMBERG
FACTOR
-
Could
Michael
Bloomberg
be
a
compromise
candidate?
He
ranks
fourth
among
Democrats
and
Democratic-leaners
in
all
four
states
(see
Q9).
Analysis:
"Once
again,
the
Democratic
Party
is
in
a
difficult
position.
More
progressive
voters
favor
Bernie
Sanders
and
Elizabeth
Warren
and
dislike
Joe
Biden.
More
centrist
voters
favor
Biden
and
dislike
Sanders
and
Warren
because
they
believe
Biden
is
more
likely
to
win
over
the
independent
voters.
This
schism
could
create
an
opportunity
for
Michael
Bloomberg
to
thread
the
needle,
and
he
has
the
money
to
do
it."
-
Dr.
Lauren
Copeland,
Baldwin
Wallace
University
-
IMPEACHMENT
-
A
plurality
of
respondents
in
each
state
'strongly'
or
'somewhat'
support
the
removal
of
President
Trump
from
office
through
the
Senate
impeachment
trial,
ranging
from
about
47%
in
Ohio
to
about
50%
in
Michigan
and
Wisconsin
(see
Q27).
-
ISSUES
THAT
MATTER
MOST
-
Economic,
healthcare
and
security
issues
are
the
top
three
concerns
among
registered
voters
in
all
four
states
(see
Q5).
Respondents
approve
of
President
Trump's
handling
of
the
economy
but
disapprove
of
his
handling
of
healthcare,
the
environment,
immigration
and
foreign
affairs
(see
Q16-Q22).
Analysis:
"Voters
give
President
Trump
high
marks
for
the
economy,
but
disapprove
of
his
handling
of
healthcare,
the
environment,
immigration
and
foreign
affairs.
This
suggests
that
if
the
economy
falls
out,
Trump
will
face
a
tough
bid
for
re-election.
Of
course,
much
hinges
on
which
candidate
wins
the
Democratic
Party's
nomination."
-
Dr.
Lauren
Copeland,
Baldwin
Wallace
University
-
IRAN,
SAFETY
&
RESPECT
-
A
plurality
of
respondents
approves
of
the
killing
of
Iranian
General
Soleimani
(see
Q24)
but
think
Trump's
policies
in
Iran
make
America
less
safe
(see
Q25).
A
plurality
of
respondents
in
each
state
also
believes
the
"administration's
policies
have
made
the
United
States
'much
less
respected'
around
the
world,"
although
there
are
differences
by
gender
and
along
party
lines
(see
Q22).
-
IMMIGRATION
-
Majorities
of
respondents
across
all
four
states
strongly
or
somewhat
agree
that
"Immigrants
are
generally
good
for
America's
economy"
(see
Q32)
and
believe
that
they
don't
harm
American
culture
(see
Q33).
At
the
same
time,
respondents
are
split
as
to
whether
"we
risk
losing
our
identity
as
a
nation"
if
"America
is
too
open
to
people
from
all
over
the
world"
(see
Q34).
-
ELECTORAL
COLLEGE
DISSATISFACTION
-
Majorities
of
voters
in
all
four
states
believe
presidential
elections
should
be
decided
by
the
popular
vote,
not
the
Electoral
College
system
(see
Q35).
Analysis:
"That
respondents
show
a
willingness
to
ditch
the
Electoral
College
is
particularly
surprising
given
the
importance
of
these
states
to
presidential
campaigns
because
of
the
controversial
institution.
Yet,
large
majorities
have
concerns
about
the
process
-
from
how
votes
are
determined
in
each
state,
to
the
fact
that
the
winner
of
the
presidency
can
lose
the
national
popular
vote."
-
Dr.
Robert
Alexander,
Ohio
Northern
University
-
SOCIAL
MEDIA
DISTRUST
-
Democrats,
Republicans
and
Independents
agree
that
social
media
use
has
increased
the
risk
"that
foreign
powers
might
interfere
in
the
United
States'
elections"
(see
Q47).
Analysis:
"These
responses
indicate
that
citizens
are
accepting
the
true
impact
of
foreign
influence
via
social
media
on
our
election
process.
The
risk
to
our
democracy
is
real.
This
means
citizens
are
now
sifting
through
media
content
trying
to
determine
authenticity
and
source,
which
could
lead
to
political
apathy
and
lower
turnout."
-
Dr.
Terri
Towner,
Oakland
University
Links
to
full
comparative
data
set,
detailed
methodology
and
contacts:
